Is it fair to target Tendulkar: Analysis of over 38 batsmen in Test history?

Three times on the trot the ball has crashed into Sachin Tendulkar’s stumps and we are reminded of the similar dismissals of Rahul Dravid not too long ago. Arunabha Sengupta does a statistical study if batsmen are more prone to getting bowled as they age.

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Sachin Tendulkar’s stumps being struck by the cherry once too often – three times out of three in the New Zealand series – makes one wonder if one is hearing the death rattle of a noble career.

 

After all, fresh in our immediate memory are the 11 times Rahul Dravid was bowled after turning 38. Although not many will remember the exact figure, the repeated sound of the ball finding a fissure in the wall and its way to strike timber still makes us wince. And that heart stopping clatter is being echoed innings after innings for Sachin Tendulkar.

 

Is it a sign of ageing reflexes? Do batsmen tend to get bowled more as they age?

 

Let us take a look at what the figures tell us.

 

If we take all cricketers into consideration from the very beginning of Test cricket, we find that bowled constitutes 21.49% of the total dismissals. If we consider all the innings played by those under the age of 38, this figure is 21.37%. For men over 38, this jumps to 25.65%.

 

Statistically, this deviation is significant – we can say that the proportion of bowled dismissals becomes considerably more after the age of 38 with 99.98% confidence.

 

All Batsmen	Under 38	Over 38	Total
Other dismissals	61081	1879	62960
Bowled	13054	482	13536
Total	74135	2361	76496
Percentage bowled	17.61	20.42	17.70
p-value	0.9997

 

If we consider only the top order batsmen, leaving out tailenders who are prone to get bowled anyway – by taking only the ones who batted at numbers 1 to 7 – the results are similar. The percentage leaps from 16.43 for the under-38 to 19.29 for over-38, which, again, is statistically significant. We can say so with 99.92% confidence.  

 

Batting at 1-7	Under 38	Over 38	Total
Other dismissals	44140	1393	45533
Bowled	8675	333	9008
Total	52815	1726	54541
Percentage bowled	16.43	19.29	16.52
pvalue	0.9992

 

However, the curious fact is that the batsmen at batting orders 1-7 have an overall average of 35.91, which shoots up to 37.80 for the 38-plus group. The reason is obviously that to bat at this level when over 38, one has to be very, very good – a Jack Hobbs, a Don Bradman or a Rahul Dravid.

 

However, is getting bowled linked to the way a batsman performs after 38?

 

If we look at a sample of individual batsmen across time who have played past 38, we find that not everyone gets bowled more often. In fact, for Hobbs, Geoff Boycott and Clive Lloyd, the percentage decreases drastically. And if we consider that Bradman was bowled 44% of the times he was dismissed post-38, we do find it has little to do with quality or performance.

 

	Overall Dismissals		Before 38		After 38		Percentage Bowled
	All	Bowled	All	Bowled	All	Bowled	Overall	Before 38	After 38
J Hobbs	95	24	43	14	52	10	25.26	32.56	19.23
P Hendren	74	26	28	10	46	16	35.14	35.71	34.78
D Bradman	70	23	52	15	18	8	32.86	28.85	44.44
T Graveney	110	26	74	16	36	10	23.64	21.62	27.78
C Cowdrey	173	31	162	28	14	3	18.13	17.28	21.43
G Boycott	170	30	111	22	59	8	17.65	19.82	13.56
C Lloyd	161	27	134	24	27	3	16.77	17.91	11.11
V Richards	170	36	154	34	16	2	21.18	22.08	12.50
G Gooch	209	36	154	27	55	9	17.22	17.53	16.36
S Waugh	224	39	216	38	8	1	17.41	17.59	12.50
R Dravid	254	55	230	44	24	11	21.65	19.13	45.83
S Tendulkar	282	51	258	46	24	5	18.09	17.83	20.83

 

(Arunabha Sengupta is a cricket historian and Chief Cricket Writer at CricketCountry. He writes about the history and the romance of the game, punctuated often by opinions about modern day cricket, while his post-graduate degree in statistics peeps through in occasional analytical pieces. The author of three novels, he can be followed on twitter at http://twitter.com/senantix)