South Africa will look to top Group B © Getty Images
South Africa will look to top Group B © Getty Images

 

By Suneer Chowdhary

 

Group B, the more interesting of the two groups, has four teams vying for three spots in the quarter-finals. South Africa have already made it through to the last eight, with one game yet to be played. There are two more games that will be of interest when it comes to deciding the top four slots.

 

On Saturday, Bangladesh play South Africa and the league stage is rounded off with the IndiaWest Indies tie on Sunday. Currently, South Africa have eight points from five, India have seven from five, England have seven from six, West Indies have six from five and Bangladesh have six from five.

 

England beat the West Indies on Thursday to end their group engagements with seven points from their six games.

 

There are now four possible scenarios:

 

1. If South Africa beat Bangladesh and West Indies beat India

 

South Africa will get to ten points and West Indies to eight. India and England will remain on seven and Bangladesh will crash out with six points. India and England will fight for the third-fourth place based on their net run-rate. India have an NRR of 0.77 and England’s is 0.07. It will mean that India will have to lose really badly to West Indies to fall below England.

 

 2. If South Africa beat Bangladesh and India beat West Indies

 

South Africa will get to ten points, India will have nine, England have seven while both the West Indies and Bangladesh have six each. Given that West Indies have one of the best net run-rates in the group, it is difficult to see how Bangladesh will pip them to the fourth spot.

 

 3. If Bangladesh beat South Africa and India beat West Indies

 

India will have nine, South Africa eight, Bangladesh have eight with England on seven. All four qualify and West Indies will make the exit. Given the net run-rates, South Africa will end second and Bangladesh will finish third.

 

 4. If Bangladesh beat South Africa and West Indies beat India

 

This is the one scenario that can send India out. In this case both England and India will finish with seven points each, with South Africa, West Indies and Bangladesh qualifying with eight points each. Where India could go out is if their net run-rate falls below England’s. Currently, India’s NRR is 0.77 while that of England is 0.07. This will happen, for instance, if India gets bowled out for 100 and West Indies get those runs in 20 overs. Or, for example, if West Indies score 300 and India gets bowled out for around 145, India will crash out.

 

(Suneer is a Mumbai-based cricket writer and can be contacted at suneerchowdhary@gmail.com and Tweets here: @suneerchowdhary)