Published: Nov 27, 2025, 09:16 AM (IST)
Edited: Nov 27, 2025, 10:03 AM (IST)
India suffered a crushing defeat in the two-Test series against South Africa, failing to win a single match. This has delivered a major blow to Team India’s hopes of reaching the World Test Championship final. India has now played half of its matches in the 2025-27 cycle – nine out of 18 – and currently stands fifth on the points table of WTC with a win percentage of 48.15%.
While India has already played half of its matches, the competition is still in the early stages for many other teams. New Zealand has yet to play a single Test series, while Sri Lanka and Pakistan have played only one each. England has just begun its second series – The Ashes against Australia. Australia, with a 100% win percentage, and South Africa, with a 75% win percentage, hold the top two spots. As a result, India will need an exceptional turnaround to climb back into the top two positions.
Historically, teams need to win approximately 60-65% of their matches to qualify for WTC final. In the 2021-23 cycle, India reached the final with a 58.8% win percentage, while Australia qualified in the previous edition with 67.54%.
Now, looking at India’s path forward:
To reach 60% threshold, India must secure 130 points. With a maximum of 216 points available from 18 Test (12 points per win), India needs 78 points from the remaining nine matches. India will play two Test each against Sri Lanka and New Zealand, both away series, and five home Tests against Australia.
To stay in contention for the final, India cannot afford further losses. One realistic scenario would be winning six of the nine matches and drawing two. This would provide 72 points from wins and 8 from draws – 80 points in total. Another possibility is winning seven of the remaining nine Tests.
Before hosting Australia in 2027, India will tour Sri Lanka and New Zealand. India’s recent record in Sri Lanka is excellent, with five wins in their last six Tests there. However, success in New Zealand has been elusive – India has not won a single Tests in the last two tours, losing 2-0 in 2020 and 1-0 in 2014. Even if India secures all four win in these two away series, they still need a significant number of points from the home against Australia to stay in contention.
