Martin guptill
Out of the 10 teams battling in the ICC World T20 2016, New Zealand is the only team to cement a place in the semi-finals so far. © Getty Images

Out of the 10 teams battling in the T20 World Cup 2016, New Zealand is the only team to have cemented a place in the semi-finals so far. We are halfway through the tournament, and this T20 spectacle is still open for the remaining nine teams. Given the tournament has been topsy-turvy so far, this scenario was likely to take place. While India, Australia, Pakistan and Bangladesh fight for the second spot in Group 2, all the members of Group 1 are still fighting to cement a place in the semi-finals. First, let’s walk through the permutations and combinations of the group of death, that is, Group 2:

Pakistan are placed at number 2, with 2 points and NRR +0.254

After Pakistan’s win against Bangladesh, they lost two consecutive matches: one against the arch-rivals India by 6 wickets with 13 balls remaining and one against New Zealand by 22 runs. However, their victory against Bangladesh by a huge margin of 55 runs has put them ahead of Australia, India and Bangladesh because of the net run-rate. Pakistan will play their last encounter of Group 1 against Australia at Mohali.

Qualification probability:

1.) If Australia emerges victorious, Pakistan will be stormed out of the tournament.
2.) If Pakistan win, they have to pray India throws away at least one of their two matches to stay alive. If India lose against Bangladesh and win against Australia, Pakistan would draw a tie with India and Australia with 4 points. Hence, it will boil down to these three team’s net run-rate.
3.) If India lose both the remaining contests, they would draw a tie only with Australia.
4.) If India lose both the remaining matches and New Zealand lose to Bangladesh, they would draw a tie with Australia and Bangladesh.

Australia are placed at number 3, with 2 points and NRR +0.108

Australia’s defeat against New Zealand and marginal win against Bangladesh have put them in a spot of bother. They play Pakistan and India in the remaining matches.

Qualification probability:

1.) If Australia win both their matches, they qualify with New Zealand for the semi-finals.
2.) If they outplay Pakistan and lose against India, they will storm out of contention if India defeats Bangladesh; and they will tie only with India.
3.) If the above scenario comes true and Bangladesh beat New Zealand, Australia will draw a tie with India and Bangladesh.
4.) If they lose against Pakistan and win against India, they will draw a tie with Pakistan.
5.) However, they will draw a tie with Pakistan, India and Bangladesh depending on the results of Bangladesh-New Zealand and Bangladesh contests.
6.) If they lose both, they will be eliminated.

India are placed at number 4, with 2 points and NRR -0.895

The tournament favourites India’s humbling defeat against New Zealand has put them on the back foot. However, their 6-wicket victory over India has kept their hopes alive. India play their remaining encounters against Bangladesh and Australia.

Qualification probability:

1.) They will qualify if they win both their contests.
2.) If they outplay Bangladesh and lose to Australia, they will be wiped off if Australia defeat Pakistan. Nonetheless, if Pakistan manages to defeat Australia, India will draw a tie with Pakistan and Australia. Thus, the net run-rate will come into play and decide India’s fate.
3.) If they beat Australia and lose to Bangladesh, they will draw a tie with the winner of Pakistan-Australia contest.
4.) If Bangladesh beats New Zealand, India will draw a tie with Bangladesh and winner of Pakistan-Australia contest.
5.) If they lose both, they will be stamped out of this edition of World T20.

Bangladesh are placed last, with no points and NRR -1.749

Bangladesh have not tasted victory so far in this tournament and are already at the doorstep of elimination.

Qualification probability: Bangladesh play against India and New Zealand.

1.) If they lose either of the two matches, they will be eliminated.
2.) If they win both their matches and Australia beats India and Pakistan, Bangladesh will be wiped out.
3.) If they win both their matches with huge margins and Australia lose with of their two contests, Bangladesh will draw a tie with India, Pakistan and Australia.

Now, let’s walk through the permutations and combinations of Group 1:

West Indies are placed at number 1 with 4 points and +0.893.

West Indies have been clinical in this T20 extravaganza so far. With the comprehensive wins over England and Sri Lanka, they sit at the top of the Group 1 table. Even if they lose both the remaining matches, they will enter the semi-finals because of a health net run-rate of +0.893. They play against South Africa and Afghanistan in the remaining contests.

Qualification probability:

1.) If they both the matches, they will continue to be the table toppers.
2.) If they win against South Africa and lose to Afghanistan, they will undoubtedly make it to the semi-finals as only either of England or Sri Lanka will draw a tie in terms of points.
3.) If South Africa beats them and Afghanistan lose to them, they will qualify for the semi-finals or draw a tie with South Africa and England. Hence, the fate of these three teams will boil down to the net run-rate.
4.) The only way West Indies can be eliminated if they lose both their games by huge margins, scaling down their run-rate.

South Africa are placed at number 2 with 2 points and NRR +0.816

Though South Africa lost to England in the last match, their comprehensive victory against Afghanistan in the previous match has helped them secure number 2 spot in Group 1. They play West Indies and Sri Lanka in the remaining matches.

Qualification probability:

1.) Even if they win their two remaining matches, their fate of qualifying for the semi-finals will depend West Indies and England’s net run-rate.
2.) If they edge past West Indies and fall back against Sri Lanka, they get eliminated if England outplay Afghanistan, Afghanistan lose to West Indies and England.
3.) If they thump Sri Lanka and lose to West Indies, they will be knocked out if England edge out both Sri Lanka and Afghanistan.
4.) If they lose both matches, they will be knocked out.

Sri Lanka are placed at number 3 with 2 points and net run-rate -0.171

Sri Lanka will play crucial matches against England and South Africa. And the probability is simple: win both and enter semi-finals.

Qualification probability:

1.) NRR won’t come into play if they both the remaining matches.
2.) If they lose either of the matches, they will hope West Indies and Afghanistan perform better than South Africa and England.
3.) If England beat them and South Africa fail to come up victorious, they will hope Afghanistan to beat England or West Indies.
4.) If they lose both contests, they will be knocked down.

England are placed number 4 with 2 points and NRR -0.408

In spite of chasing down a mammoth 230-run target against the Proteas, they are second-last in the Group 1 table. They play Afghanistan and Sri Lanka next.

Qualification probability:

1.) If they win all the remaining matches, they will draw a tie with West Indies and South; and yet again, their fate will be decided by the net run-rate. Moreover, if West Indies win against South Africa, England and West Indies will qualify.
2.) If they thump Afghanistan and fall behind Sri Lanka or vice-versa, their chances of qualifying are bleak because of the negative run-rate.
3.) If they lose both, they remain eliminated.

Afghanistan are placed last with no points and NRR -1.248

Afghanistan have punched well above their weight but could not win a game yet. They play against England and West Indies.

Qualification probability:

1.) They remain eliminated if they are beaten in either of their remaining matches.
2.) Things will get complicated for other teams if Afghanistan win the remaining matches, given South Africa defeat West Indies, England beat Sri Lanka and Sri Lanka beat South Africa. However, these results will draw a tie between all the Group 1 teams and each team’s fate will be determined by the net run-rate.