Whisper it softly, but Bangladesh are confident of defeating India at Edgbaston in match 40 of the ICC Cricket World Cup 2019 to take a giant leap towards their first trip to the semi-finals. They see the openings in India’s middle order, and believe that inroads can be made on a slow and low Edgbaston surface on Tuesday – the same on which England beat India on Sunday. Their drive to upend the pre-tournament is immense, even if the head-to-head record shows a decidedly one-sided history.

They know it can be done, the golden four of Bangladesh cricket – Tamim Iqbal, Mushfiqur Rahim, Shakib Al Hasan and Mashrafe Mortaza – all part of that famous upset over India in the 2007 World Cup. If Bangladesh beat India in the 2019 World Cup, it will not be an upset.

Beating India will not guarantee Mortaza’s team a spot in the final four, because for that to happen they need to get past Pakistan at Lord’s later this week.

India, despite losing to England here in Birmingham on Sunday, are on track for a top-two finish. Theoretically, of course, Virat Kohli ‘s team can still not make the semi-finals if they lose to Bangladesh and Sri Lanka and it their net run-rate takes a hit. At second place on the World Cup table with 11 points, India need to win one of their remaining two group fixtures to enter the semi-finals.

Their campaign has been dented by the withdrawal of Vijay Shankar, and eyebrows have been raised by his replacement, the uncapped Mayank Agarwal. Shankar was picked for his all-round skills, and has been replaced by a batsman. A day before he was ruled out, Rohit Sharma reiterated that the Indian team management had no uncertainty about Shankar at No 4. Then Sanjay Bangar, the batting coach, backed Rishabh Pant to keep going at No 4.

Bhuvneshwar Kumar is fit for selection, but may have to sit out another match as India ponder a third spinner on a dry Edgbaston surface. Getting the right team selection has never been trickier for India in this World Cup, as they seek to confirm their semi-final passage against a very good Bangladesh outfit.