Published: May 12, 2011, 12:14 PM (IST)
Edited: Mar 22, 2014, 04:42 PM (IST)
By Suneer Chowdhary
As things stand, it is difficult to see any of the teams from the bottom of the points table possess any kind of a chance of making headway in the IPL. After a promisingly exciting start to the tournament, many of the teams have fizzled away. It now seems the top four sides in the points table will go through to the next stage.
After Royal Challengers Bangalore made a mockery of the Rajasthan Royals’ score of 146, and leapfrogged to the second position in the table, the battle for the top two spots has turned more intense than that to enter into the top four. However, there are outside opportunities for some of those out of the top four.
Mumbai Indians lead the charts with 16 points from 11 games, followed closely by Bangalore with 15 and Chennai and Kolkata with 14 each. All these sides have played 11 matches and that leaves them with three more.
Kochi, for example, have 10 points from 11 games and have their games against Punjab, Rajasthan and Chennai. They need to win all their games to stand a chance to qualify; two wins will take them to 14, which may not really help their cause. And if they win all their three games, it would mean that they would end with 16, while Punjab (8 from 10) will be able to get to a maximum of 14. Similarly, Rajasthan’s maximum tally would be 13.
If Kochi win against both, Punjab and Rajasthan, but lose to Chennai, then the Tuskers and Punjab will have a chance to end on 14 at maximum. With Chennai having moved to 16, Kolkata would need to win only one of their remaining three games (against Bangalore, Mumbai and Pune) to knock the Kochi and Punjab out.
Punjab (8 from 10) are in a bigger bowl of soup and swimming out will be possible only if they win all their games. That is wins over Kochi, Delhi, Bangalore and Deccan. The Bangalore game will be the toughest, but the good news is that they beat Mumbai in the previous game. That should give them some confidence.
Rajasthan, who have 11 from 12 games, play Mumbai and Kochi. If they can win both these game, they end with 15 points. A win over Kochi would have knocked the Tuskers out of reckoning. Then, for the Royals to qualify, they will need to hope that either of Chennai or Kolkata lose all their games (which will keep that losing team to 14 only). Possible, but not probable.
There is one interesting scenario though. Let’s assume that both, Chennai and Kolkata lose all their games. This will mean that they will end on 14 apiece. Then, if Kochi win two of their last three and Punjab win three of their last four, there is a probability of four teams tying on 14 points. Then, again, Pune have their last three games against Delhi, Deccan and Kolkata, with wins in all those three taking them to 14 as well.
Now that will set the tournament alight or what! Unfortunately, the chances of that happening are akin to getting a Royal Flush in poker.
Mumbai have their games against Deccan, Rajasthan and Kolkata. Bangalore play Kolkata, Punjab and Chennai. Chennai’s games are against Delhi, Kochi and Bangalore while Kolkata will be up against Bangalore, Mumbai and Pune.
As aforementioned, the chances of a more exciting fight between these four in a bid to end in the top two positions is more probable than all the above scenarios. If Mumbai can win two of their remaining three games, then the only way that they will not finish in the top two is if two of the other three win all their games. With Bangalore playing both, Chennai and Kolkata, if the Royal Challengers win all their three, it will mean that Chennai and Kolkata cannot do so.
In short, if Mumbai win two out of their last three, the only way that they can be toppled from the top two positions is if both, Chennai and Kolkata win all three games. This also implies that Mumbai’s wins need to come against Deccan and Rajasthan and not against Kolkata, because if they beat Kolkata (and one other team), there is no way that they can be pushed out of their top two position.
(Suneer is a Mumbai-based cricket writer and can be contacted at suneerchowdhary@gmail.com and Tweets here @suneerchowdhary)
