Published: Mar 30, 2011, 10:22 AM (IST)
Edited: Mar 18, 2014, 06:08 PM (IST)
By Murali Venkatesan
“The only thing predictable about Pakistan is its unpredictability” – Anonymous
I want to begin this blog with the assertion that the title “Mother of all matches” does not quite belong to the India–Pakistan face-off in the semi-final on March 30th. In current form, the match that deserves that title in the 2011 edition of the Cricket World Cup belongs to the India vs Sri Lanka final to be played on April 2nd at the Wankhede Stadium!
The unexpected defeat of Australia to Pakistan ensured that India met Australia in the quarter-finals at Motera instead of in the semi-finals. An India-Australia game at the seam-friendly Mohali would have loaded the dice in Australia’s favor, given the vastly superior quality of their seam attack compared to that of India’s. So, in some ways, Pakistan’s surprise win over Australia helped India have a better draw in the knock-out stage of the tournament.
The current Pakistani team, unlike others in the past, is much more dependent on their spinners. This negates any material advantage that the seam-friendly conditions would offer to India’s opponents. Arguably, the two teams have similar seam bowling capabilities – India rely on the wily Zaheer Khan and Pakistan have turned to the dependable Umar Gul.
On the batting front, India has a clear advantage. All the batsmen have been amongst the runs, and the quarter-final match is about as good as it gets in terms of getting match-fit – mentally and physically.
However, there are several jokers in the pack and high-pressure semi-final matches have a cadence of their own. India needs to tread with care.
The Dew Factor
One of the reasons this World Cup has been as interesting as it has been is because of the fact that the toss has played a limited role in the matches. It is interesting that the folks who came up with the World Cup itinerary chose Mohali as one of the venues for the semi-finals. It is well known that dew will be a major factor in Mohali for the team bowling second, given that the match is being played in late March. Spinners will have trouble gripping the ball and the ball will come on to the bat as it skids off the surface once the dew comes in. It is a pity that in a vital semi-final match the toss could have a major say in the outcome. Hopefully captain Mahendra Singh Dhoni is practicing for hours on end with the coin – I, for one, will be holding my breath.
The Pitch
If reports are to be believed, the curator Daljit Singh is diligently watering the pitch and it has some grass on it. There is talk of using a hot roller as the match approaches to make the pitch less friendly to seam movement.
Team Composition
While Ravichandran Ashwin has done enough in two matches to vindicate his selection, the Indian think-tank has to grapple with the composition of the bowling attack. In keeping with the “horses for courses” philosophy, the Mohali pitch is probably better suited for a three seamer/one spinner attack. However, given Ashsih Nehra, Munaf Patel and Shantakumaran’s Sreesanth’s form, this appears to be a foolhardy exercise. With the only other seam-up option in the team being Virat Kohli, India will sorely miss a seam bowling all-rounder in the mould of Irfan Pathan to round off the team.
If, as expected, India go in with a two seamer/two spinner attack, India will need to move away from its strategy of opening the bowling with Ashwin. The new ball represents a real opportunity to make inroads with a couple of wickets with incisive seam bowling – given Pakistan’s shaky batting line-up, early wickets would set them back considerably. Therefore, India’s choice of second seamer will be vital. In my opinion, although it is unlikely that the Indian think-tank will take this gamble, Sreesanth should play ahead of Nehra or Munaf. He bowls his out-swingers at considerable pace and is a genuine wicket-taking bowler. While he is mercurial and can prove expensive on an off day, in my opinion he is India’s best option given that neither Munaf nor Nehra have delivered in the multiple opportunities accorded to them. If only, Sreesanth would take a chill pill – something approved by World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA)!
I think that Pakistan’s dilemma about whether or not to play Shoaib Akhtar in the match is a storm in a tea pot. He is clearly not match fit and playing him on reputation would be a blunder. The two old war horses, Younis Khan and Misbah-ul-Haq, are what Pakistan are banking on. Both rely on quick singles at the beginning of their innings as they get their eye in. Hopefully Dhoni sets good close-in fields to ensure that they are unable to execute this strategy. I am predicting a key run-out by Messrs. Suresh Raina and Virat Kohli in Wednesday’s match as Younis/Misbah try to steal singles.
I am impressed that Pakistan has made it to the semi-final. This is a team that has been mired in the match fixing controversy and subsequently lost its two best bowlers to lengthy bans. To add fuel to the fire, the PCB delayed naming the captain for the World Cup team till the last moment – further polarizing the factionalized team. And lastly, Shahid Afridi is not a leader in the mould of Imran Khan, someone who can rise above it all and exhort his team to play out of their skins. Like England, Pakistan has given it all to get this far and like England, I do not think they have enough in the kitty to put it over India.
Godspeed India. Life is good!
(Murali is a resident of the San Francisco Bay Area. When he gets time off from his cricketing duties, whether it be playing or watching cricket, he attends to his duties as a husband, father, and engineering new solar technology solutions)
