Published: Feb 17, 2016, 08:00 AM (IST)
Edited: Feb 16, 2016, 11:04 PM (IST)
Neil Wagner has a lot going for him. He has been in outstanding form with ball, has been touted by his retiring skipper Brendon McCullum as a workhorse, and has lived up to the expectations. He brings to the New Zealand pace attack a feature lacking from the armouries of Trent Boult and Tim Southee; the ability to bounce batsmen out when more conventional means refuse to work. He has never torn through a side, but ask him to take a wicket when others are knackered, and he will seldom let down. Yet, all this has not equated to a steady Test spot in the New Zealand XI. ALSO READ: New Zealand look forward to greener wicket vs Australia in 2nd Test at Christchurch
To what does he owe this non-preferential treatment? For one thing, Boult and Southee rely heavily on lateral movement, and science dictates that swing will be optimised when one side of the ball remains shiny and the other roughened. The greater this inequity between the two sides the more likeliness of it swinging. The problem with Wagner is he thuds the ball into the surface so hard he tends to roughen even the side meant to be shiny. This could be an impediment to the strike-bowling duo. ALSO READ: Brendon McCullum blames poor show by batsmen in 1st Test defeat against Australia
Another issue with Wagner is that New Zealand are comfortable in the fact that they have a batsman with an average of almost 16 at No. 11 in Boult when Wagner is not playing. Wagner averages 11 in comparison. Relatively, Doug Bracewell (who will be the scapegoat if Wagner makes it) is a superior batsman, though his average of 13.3 does not suggest the same. This is a minor consideration, but in an increasingly competitive seam-attack, this does probably feature a mention in the team meetings.
Yet, New Zealand need to accommodate Wagner. The pros he brings to the side with his ability to jolt oppositions and to bring them on their toes when swing or its exponents have worn out is vital. To accommodate him New Zealand can consider dropping either Bracewell or Mark Craig.
Craig has been in spectacular form with the bat, and his exclusion would further the Black Caps’ apprehension to play Wagner. However, Craig has been all but threatening with the ball. His off-spin has proven to be highly ineffectual against the Australians to the extent where he actually releases pressure, let alone sustain or build on it.
Bracewell is perhaps the most unfortunate bowler in the world right now. He bowls well and is capable of hard toil. He can hit the deck hard and bowl with sustainable accuracy for long periods. Tragically, it often happens that catches are dropped off him or in more freak cases, as in the previous game, he gets a bowl to crash into the timber of an unsettled batsman, playing the leave, only for the delivery to erroneously get called a no-ball! The batsman in question — Adam Voges — then batting at 7, went on to add a match-stealing 232 runs to that figure.
In saying all that about Bracewell’s misfortune, it also is true that his way of operation is only slightly deviant from that of Southee and Boult, which effectively means his wickets dry up when theirs does. That’s where Wagner scores.
New Zealand might not think it wise to go into the match without a spinner, no matter how ineffective he might have been. So even if Craig happens to be dropped, it might be for the inclusion of leg-spinner Ish Sodhi, who routed Otago with a 7-wicket haul recently. Bracewell is the likely candidate to get dropped for Wagner. However, if the Kiwis make the bold move of playing a four-pronged pace attack, Bracewell can play alongside Wagner.
Either way, for their own good, New Zealand must play workhorse Wagner to give themselves the best chance to take a series-levelling win against Australia at Christchurch in a bid to give McCullum a warm farewell.
(Rishad D’Souza, a reporter with CricketCountry, gave up hopes of playing Test cricket after a poor gully-cricket career. He now reports on the sport. You can follow @RDcric on Twitter)
